Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

One part of this market is picking up while others stay softer

By Scott Peck

Real estate, Tier 5 - Bench / Opportunistic

The biggest thing to know right now: this market is not one story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 703 homes sold across Tier 5 ZIP codes in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That number was down 6.8% from the same months a year before. But inside that overall dip, one ZIP code jumped sharply while others pulled back. Where your home sits changes everything.

The one ZIP code that moved differently

ZIP 78266 in San Antonio stood out. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 85 homes sold there, up 51.8% from a year earlier. Homes sat on the market a median of 50 days, which was 33 days shorter than the same period in 2025. Supply dropped to 2.9 months. That is a noticeably tighter picture than the other ZIP codes in this group.

The median sale price in 78266 did dip, down 11.2% to $426,950 according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. So prices softened even as sales picked up. That tells you buyers found value and moved on it. Pending sales were up 15.6% too, which points to continued momentum heading into the fall.

The rest of the market: slower, but not stopped

La Vernia's ZIP 78121 told a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded 64 homes sold, down 15.8% from a year before. The median sale price fell 14.1% to $484,000. Homes sat on the market a median of 98 days, which was 19 days longer than the same period in 2025. Supply sat at 5.4 months. That is a buyer-friendly pace. Not every home sold slow, though. About 19.1% went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 4.5 points from a year ago.

ZIP 78247 in San Antonio moved at the fastest pace of any ZIP in this group. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median days on market at 41 days, down 7 days from a year ago. Nearly 1 in 4 homes, 24.4%, went under contract within two weeks of listing. Prices dipped 4.9% to $280,450, but 14% of homes sold above list price, up 2.1 points from last year.

ZIP 78240 in San Antonio saw sales fall 19.2% to 101 homes. Days on market rose 17 days to a median of 53. Still, 24.3% of homes went under contract within two weeks, and the sale-to-list ratio held at 98.2%, up 1.4 points from a year earlier. The Real Estate Data Aggregator also noted new listings dropped 25.5%, which kept supply from getting too far out of hand.

Seguin: the biggest pool, a mixed read

ZIP 78155 in Seguin had the most sales of any ZIP in this group. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 303 homes sold, down just 2.9% from a year ago. The median price was $270,000, up 1.7%. That is the only ZIP in this group where the median price went up. Days on market climbed 10 days to a median of 86, and supply sat at 5.8 months. Seguin is moving, but buyers have more choices there than in the tighter ZIP codes.

What the national picture adds

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. That national gain is real, but it does not land the same way in every ZIP code. In La Vernia and parts of San Antonio, prices dipped. In Seguin, they nudged up. The national number is a backdrop, not a forecast for your street.

Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025. That matters because it raises the monthly cost for buyers, which can slow decisions. Realtor.com also reported that 20.8% of listings nationally took a price cut in September, the highest share since October 2022. That matches what we see locally: sellers who price carefully are closing deals, while homes priced too high are sitting.

The whole market in one view

One more thing worth knowing: the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,160 homes for sale across these five ZIP codes. That is still down 8.6% from a year ago. Fewer choices for buyers can help sellers, but only if the price is right. Homes priced well are moving. Homes priced above what buyers will pay are sitting, sometimes for months.

Every street reads a little differently from the ZIP code around it. A block with newer builds, a specific school zone, or a particular lot size can move faster or slower than the numbers above suggest. The data gives you a solid starting point. Your specific home needs its own look.